Ifatwa ry’Umujyi wa Damas muri Siriya: Ese iherezo ry’ubutegetsi bwa Assad ni intangiriro y’igihe gishya mu karere?

Mu ijoro ryo kuri uyu wa gatandatu rishyira ku cyumweru, Damas, umurwa mukuru wa Siriya, waguye mu maboko y’abarwanyi batavuga rumwe n’ubutegetsi bwa Bashar al-Assad. Ibi bikaba byemejwe na Minisitiri w’Intebe wa Siriya, Mohammad Ghazi Jalali, wagaragaje ko «igihe gishya gitangiye mu mateka ya Siriya. » Iyi mvugo yateye urujijo rukomeye, cyane ko byanavuzwe ko atazi aho Perezida Bashar al-Assad aherereye ndetse n’indege yagiyemo ikaba itari kugaragara mu ikoranabuhanga rishinzwe gukurikirana ibyerekeranye ni indege.

Abandi bayobozi bakomeye mu gihugu barimo Minisitiri w’Itumanaho na Minisitiri w’Ububanyi n’Amahanga nabo nta makuru agaragaza aho bari cyangwa uko ubuzima bwabo buhagaze. N'ubwo bimeze bityo, Minisitiri w’Itumanaho yatangaje ko abarwanyi bemeye kurinda no kurengera umutekano w’abagize guverinoma basigaye mu mujyi wa Damas. Ibi byose bikaba bihamya iherezo ry’ubutegetsi bwa Bashar al-Assad nyuma y’imyaka myinshi ayoboye Siriya mu buryo bw'igitugu, ashyigikiwe kandi ahabwa inkunga ikomeye n’igihugu cy’Uburusiya na Irani. Nyuma y’ikurwaho ry’ubutegetsi bwa Assad muri Siriya, abakurikirana politiki yo mu karere k’uburasirazuba bwo hagati (moyen orient) bagaragaza ingaruka 3 ziturutse ku ivanwaho ry’ubwo butegetsi arizo izi zikurikira:

1)Impinduka y’uruhare rw’Uburusiya muri Siriya :Ifatwa ry’umujyi wa Damas rishobora guhindura byinshi ku ruhare rw’Uburusiya muri Siriya. Minisitiri w’Intebe wa Siriya yavuze ko ikibazo cy’ahazaza h’ingabo z’u Burusiya muri icyo gihugu kizakemurwa n’ubuyobozi bushya buzashyirwaho.Uburusiya, nk’umufatanyabikorwa ukomeye wa Assad, bwari bwifashishije igihugu cya Siriya nk'ikibuga cyo kugaragaza imbaraga zabwo muri politiki mpuzamahanga no guhangana n'ibihugu byo mu burengerazuba(Amerika n’Uburayi). Mu gihe ubutegetsi bushya bwajya mu biganiro n’ibihugu bitavuga rumwe na Assad, byashyira ingufu z’Uburusiya mu kaga, bikaba byanatuma buhindura uburyo bwitwara mu karere. Hagati aho amakuru menshi aremeza ko igihugu cy’Uburusiya cyarangije gukura ibirindiro by’ingabo zabwo bwari bufite muri Siriya.

2)Umutekano wa Isirayeli mu majyaruguru yayo : Ifatwa rya Damas ryatumye Ingabo za Isirayeli (IDF) zongera ingufu ku mupaka wayo ihuriyeho na Siriya, cyane cyane mu gace k’imisozi ya «Golan» ya Siriya yafashwe na Isirayeli. Aha, Isirayeli ifite impungenge ko abarwanyi birukanye Assad ku butegetsi muri Siriya bashobora kwinjira ku butaka bwayo, bigatera umutekano muke ku baturage bo muri ako karere. Ibinyujije mu itangazo, IDF yatangaje ko yongereye ingufu zayo «mu rwego rwo kurinda abaturage n'imidugudu iri ku misozi ya Golan.» Gusa, Isirayeli yavuze ko itazivanga mu byemezo bizafatwa n’ubutegetsi bushya muri Siriya.

3)Ingaruka ku mitegekere y'akarere k’Amajyaruguru y'Afurika no mu Burasirazuba bwo hagati : Ubutegetsi bwa Bashar al-Assad bwari ishingiro ry’ubusugire n’imigabo n’imigambi y’Uburusiya na Iran mu karere. Kuvaho k’ubutegetsi bwe muri Siriya bishobora guha imbaraga abarwanyi b'imitwe y’intagondwa cyangwa imitwe irwanya Israel nka Hezbollah. Irani, nk’igihugu gifitanye isano ya hafi na Assad, ishobora kugerageza guha inkunga imitwe ifite inyungu zihura n'izayo mu karere, bikarushaho kongera umwuka mubi hagati ya Irani na Isirayeli.

Ese ubutegetsi bushya bwitezwe muri Siriya buzahindura iki?

Mu gihe habonetse ubutegetsi bushya muri Siriya, amakuru amwe yemeza ko guverinoma nshya izarushaho gukorana n'ibihugu byo mu burengerazuba ndetse no gukemura ikibazo cy'ubusugire bw'igihugu. Aha, ishyirwa mu bikorwa ry’imishyikirano hagati ya guverinoma nshya, Amerika, Uburayi ndetse n'Abarabu, birashoboka cyane. Gusa, ikibazo gikomeye ni uko abarwanyi bigaruriye Damas bashobora kudashyigikira ubwumvikane n'amahanga, ahubwo bagashaka gushyira imbere inyungu zabo bwite.

Inzozi z’ibihugu by’uburengerazuba bishaka amahoro muri Siriya

Ibihugu by’uburengerazuba, cyane cyane Leta Zunze Ubumwe za Amerika n’ibihugu by’u Burayi, bimaze imyaka myinshi bisaba ko Assad yava ku butegetsi. Ubu, iyo nzozi yabo isa n’iyagezweho. Icyakora, amahoro arambye muri Siriya ntazagerwaho vuba, kubera ko abarwanyi bigaruriye Damas bashobora gukomeza gutera intugunda. Nta cyizere ko abayobozi bashya ba Siriya bazorohera amahanga cyangwa bagashobora gukemura ikibazo cy’impunzi nyinshi zahunze igihugu. Hari izindi nkurikizi zishobora kwigaragaza arizo izi zikurikira :

a)Ku baturage ba Siriya: Hari impungenge z’uko ifatwa rya Damas rishobora gutuma haba ibikorwa byo kwihorera. Imiryango itegamiye kuri leta (ONG) irasaba abarwanyi kwirinda ibikorwa byo kwihorera ku basivili, kuko byaba inkurikizi mbi ku bibazo by’uburenganzira bwa muntu.

b)Ku bijyanye n’impunzi: Ubutegetsi bushya niburamuka bufashe ibyemezo bidashyigikiwe n’amahanga, bizatuma igikorwa cyo gutahuka kw’impunzi z’Abarabu ziri mu bihugu nka Turukiya na Libani kigorana.

c)Ku burenganzira bw’ikiremwamuntu: Hari impungenge z’uko iyo abarwanyi bafashe ubutegetsi, baba badafite gahunda ihamye yo gucunga ibibazo by’umutekano n’uburenganzira bwa muntu. Byitezwe ko amaraso ashobora kongera kumeneka muri Siriya, cyane cyane ku baturage bakorana n’amahanga cyangwa abashinjwa gufatanya n'ubutegetsi bwa Assad.

Umwanzuro

Ifatwa rya Damas ni impinduka ikomeye, akaba n’ikimenyetso cy'iherezo ry'ubutegetsi bwa Bashar al-Assad nyuma y’imyaka irenga 20 ari ku butegetsi. Ingaruka z’iki gikorwa zizagera ku karere kose, zikaba zizahindura uburyo bw’imiyoborere ya Siriya, imibanire n’amahanga, ndetse n’umutekano wa Isirayeli. Mu gihe abarwanyi bazaba bashyizeho guverinoma nshya, ibihugu byo mu burengerazuba bishobora gushaka kuyifashisha mu guharanira ko habaho impinduka z’ukuri. Icyakora, umutekano n'ubusugire bw'akarere biracyashidikanywaho, cyane ko abarwanyi bashobora guhangana hagati yabo cyangwa bagashaka kuguma ku butegetsi mu buryo bw’igitugu nk'uko Assad yabigenzaga.

Icyizere cy'amahoro muri Siriya ni nk'urumuri ruri kure, rutagaragara neza. Imbaraga z'ibihugu by’uburenganzuba bw’isi, iz'Uburusiya, n’izindi ngufu ziturutse mu barwanyi banyuranye zizakomeza guhanganira mu gihugu cya Siriya. Ikizere gihari ni uko guverinoma izashingwa muri Siriya izaharanira amahoro arambye no kwibanda ku guca burundu intambara yateje ubuhunzi n'ubukene bukabije mu gihugu.

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